The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea, and emerging markets. Data comes from OE Link, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. PSR-TPI covers Class 3-8 Trucks (3.5 tons and greater) and Bus Chassis.
The PSR-TPI decreased from 116 to 111, or 4.5%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2024, from Q4 2023. The year-over-year (Q1 2023 - Q1 2024) PSR-TPI was flat at 111. There was no change.
All Regions
In 2024, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Europe, South Asia and North America is expected to decline modestly while production in China, South America, Japan and Korea is expected to improve over last year.
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Global Index
Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.5% this year over 2023. Moving into 2024, much of the focus on demand will be centered around slowing global economic conditions that will impact overall freight demand.
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North America
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 9.3% this year over 2023 after strong class 8 truck production last year was driven by on-going pent-up demand. While class 8 demand is expected to decline this year, it will still be at an elevated level especially during the first quarter of the year. Strength in the vocational segment and higher levels of heavy truck demand in Mexico will off-set the weakness in the semi-truck segment. Continued softness in the overall freight market will negatively impact truck demand through 2024. High inflation and interest rates will also pressure demand moving forward.
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Europe
After strong commercial vehicle demand in Europe last year, MHCV production is expected to decline by 8.6% this year over 2023. Vehicle deliveries were strong during 2023 and the order books remain at healthy levels moving into 2024. Overall, the supply chain has improved and much like North America, pent-up heavy truck demand will fuel production levels through at least the first quarter of the year. PSR expects truck production to slow this year primarily due to rebalanced truck capacity and a slower economy in part due to on-going inflation and higher interest rates.
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Emerging Markets
After a strong level of vehicle replacement during the past few years, commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 6% this year compared with 2023. This will be primarily due to a re-balanced truck capacity along will a forecasted slowdown in freight demand in India. Commercial vehicle production in India is expected to decline by 8% this year and increase by 5% in 2025.
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South America
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 25.2% this year after a significant decline in 2023 primarily driven by the implementation of the Proconve 8 emission regulations in Brazil last year as well as elevated level of interest rate.
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Japan & Korea
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is increase by 4.2% this year over 2023. Commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 4.7% in Japan and .3% in South Korea this year. The supply chain has shown good improvement which led to stronger than expected production levels last year especially in South Korea.
Power Systems Research
China
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 5.4% this year over 2023. Vehicle demand was up sharply last year as the market recovered from a dismal 2022. While truck demand is expected to increase this year, the Chinese economy will continue to face economic headwinds during the next few years. The economic issues are primarily fueled by deflation, bankrupt property developers and local government debt. In Taiwan, medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to increase by 4.7% this year over 2023.
Power Systems Research
The next Power Systems Research TPI will be released in July 2024 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q2 2024.
