Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
The latest data reveals muted growth for the first half of 2025 in the United States as high interest rates and inflation remain a concern, but there are some positive upward trends. Europe is also dealing with contraction relating to industrial production, particularly with Germany, which is dealing with high energy prices and weakness with China.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
U.S. OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator ticked up in November, but the general trend is a plateau.
Recent movement in the Indicator suggests modest growth in U.S. Industrial Production in 2025 compared to prior growth cycles.
U.S. OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change is generally plateauing in positive territory, suggesting muted rise ahead.
Annual EU Industrial Production is contracting and 2.5% below the year-ago level. Year-over-year decline has eased slightly from 3.3% back in mid-2024.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders
Annual U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders declined to $50.2 billion in October. While the annual total is still 1.1% above the year-ago level, the quarterly total has dropped to 10.2% below the year-ago level.
U.S. Construction Machinery Exports are in recession, a downside pressure on New Orders, though infrastructure funding within the U.S. will likely limit decline.
U.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production Index
Annual U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production in November was 6.5% below the year-ago level. Further contraction is likely in the near term.
While oil prices are generally above breakeven levels, the industry remains conservative on capex. The macroeconomy will likely pick up in 2025, which will help encourage more investments.
U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics
U.S. Industrial Production
U.S. Industrial Production in the three months through November was 0.7% below the same period one year ago. The general trend is a downward-tilted plateau.
A stable consumer and improving business-to-business activity support rise in the quarterly rate-of-change in 2025.
U.S. Industrial ProductionITR Economics
U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments
Annual U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments in October were 0.5% above the year-ago level and are trending relatively flat.
Longer-term interest rates remain elevated and agriculture commodity prices are weak right now, which will likely dampen recovery in this market.
U.S. Farm Machinery ShipmentsITR Economics
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production
Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production is declining but still 1.0% above the year-ago level.
Still-elevated interest rates are exerting downside pressure on Production. Mild growth in U.S. Total Wholesale Trade and freight volumes suggest that contraction in Truck Production will likely be brief.
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders
Annual U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders reached a record high in October, 2.5% above the year-ago level.
Recently announced additional aid to Ukraine could bolster New Orders, though the imminent transition of power presents an unknown for the future of foreign aid.
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the three months through October was 3.4% higher than the year-ago level. Growth is slowing.
Components of Construction are performing differently. Excluding heavy construction segments such as manufacturing and power, quarterly light nonresidential construction is 5.9% below the year-ago level and in recession.
U.S. Private Nonresidential ConstructionITR Economics
U.S. Total Public Construction
Annual U.S. Total Public Construction in October totaled $487.6 billion, 11.2% above the year-ago level.
Construction growth is slowing, and federal funding will likely taper in the coming years as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law money is used up.
U.S. Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
U.S. Mining Production
Annual U.S. Mining Production in November was 0.6% below the year-ago level and is in a nascent recession.
Recession in Production is expected to be short-lived and mild, as the industrial sector is poised to grow in 2025.
U.S. Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Quarterly Germany Industrial Production in October was 4.0% below the year-ago level.
The pace of year-over-year contraction has eased slightly. Still, downside risks remain in terms of energy prices and overseas competition.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in the 12 months through October was 18.8% below the year-ago level.
Environmental regulations in Europe surrounding the farming industry have led to dissent among farmers who are struggling financially; decline in Production is partly a symptom of this sluggishness.
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
